So far this year no tropical cyclones have developed in the Southwest Indian Ocean. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) recently warned that a low moving westward over northwestern Australia may soon become a tropical cyclone. Warm Indian Ocean waters and low vertical wind shear are providing a good environment for tropical cyclone development.
Australia is normally affected by 11 cyclones a year but only three formed during Australia's last summer. This year sea surface temperatures in the tropical waters around Australia are much warmer so an average tropical cyclone is forecast by the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM). Tropical cyclone 02S formed in the Indian Ocean northwest of Australia yesterday. Another tropical cyclone is also expected to form soon in an area of intense convection west-northwest of Darwin, Australia.